An AARP poll released Tuesday shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by 3 points in Nevada. The survey reveals that 48% of Nevada voters support Trump, while 45% favor Biden.
The poll also considers the impact of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose inclusion increases Trump’s lead to 7 points. Although Kennedy plans to be on the ballot in all 50 states, he has not yet qualified in Nevada. Polling expert Bob Ward of Fabrizio Ward commented that Kennedy’s candidacy would complicate Biden’s efforts to win the state.
Among voters aged 50 and older, Trump holds a 12-point lead over Biden. This represents a slight improvement for Biden from a previous New York Times/Siena poll, which showed him trailing by 13 points.
Nevada’s six electoral votes make it a crucial battleground in the upcoming presidential election. Biden narrowly won the state in 2020 by a margin of 2.7 percentage points. Ward highlighted that any battleground state could prove pivotal in the closely contested election.
The Senate race in Nevada is also competitive, with Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen running for reelection against Republican Sam Brown. The poll indicates Rosen leads Brown by 5 points among all voters, though Brown has a 5-point advantage among voters aged 50 and older.
Impact Research pollster Jeff Liszt pointed out the significance of split-ticket voters, who could influence the state’s presidential race. The poll found that 43% of older voters are straight-ticket Republicans, 35% are straight-ticket Democrats, and 23% are split-ticket voters, suggesting many voters are still up for grabs.
Conducted from June 12 to 18, the poll surveyed 1,400 likely Nevada voters. The margin of error was not disclosed.
