New Poll Shows Trump Taking Lead Over Biden In Pennsylvania

In a recent poll conducted by Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research for the Pennsylvania chapter of the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), former President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, Biden’s birth state, with less than six months until Election Day.

Among likely Keystone State voters, Trump, 77, garnered 49% support, while Biden, 81, received 45%, indicating a tight race between the two candidates. Trump’s lead over Biden was more pronounced among voters aged 50 and older, with the former president securing 52% support in this demographic compared to Biden’s 42%.

The significance of older voters in Pennsylvania’s electorate cannot be overstated, as they comprised over half (55%) of the state’s voters in the 2020 election, during which Biden narrowly defeated Trump by approximately 80,000 votes out of more than 6.8 million cast.

Bill Johnston Walsh, the state director of AARP Pennsylvania, emphasized the importance of older voters in the upcoming election, stating that candidates must address issues such as Social Security, Medicare, and prescription drug costs to win their support.

AARP’s survey revealed that a vast majority (85%) of respondents aged 50 and older were “extremely motivated” to vote in the upcoming election. Social Security, Medicare, and prescription drug costs were identified as crucial factors influencing their voting decisions.

Biden has attempted to appeal to older voters by accusing Trump of planning to cut Social Security and Medicare, claims that Trump has refuted. The trustees’ annual reports indicate that the trust funds behind both programs are facing financial challenges, with Social Security projected to run out of funds in 2033 and the Medicare Trust Fund expected to become insolvent in 2036.

According to RealClearPolitics, Trump maintains a slight lead over Biden in Pennsylvania, with an average of 1.6 percentage points based on surveys. Additionally, Trump is leading Biden in several other key battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania is also the site of a closely watched Senate race between incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA) and Republican businessman David McCormick. While Casey leads McCormick among all likely voters, he trails narrowly among voters aged 50 and older.

The survey, conducted from April 24 to 30, sampled 1,398 likely Pennsylvania voters, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points for the statewide sample and plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points for the oversample of voters aged 50 and older.